A Multi-Layered Force-Majeure Risk-Allocation Model Integrating Geohazard Analytics, Civil-Law Mapping, and Blockchain Execution for the Liwa-Krui Corridor
Background: The Liwa-Krui corridor in western Sumatra constitutes a critical yet highly vulnerable maritime-terrestrial logistics lifeline exposed to recurrent seismic-tectonic geohazards, triggering frequent road severance, port closures, and catastrophic perishable cargo losses. Objectives: This study establishes an empirical, legally enforceable risk-allocation framework coupling high-frequency geohazard analytics, Indonesian Civil Code force-majeure mapping, and programmable blockchain smart contracts for dynamic liability distribution. Methods: A regionally calibrated Hanks-Kanamori attenuation model calculates Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) from moment magnitude and hypocentral distance. A multi-tier Logistics Disruption Index (LDI) is coupled with an empirical economic loss function incorporating granular micro-segment metrics (spoilage decay rate of 2.3%/h at 4 degC and baseline diesel consumption of 22.4 L/100 km). Smart-contract logic operationalizes statutory force-majeure provisions (Articles 1243, 1320, and 1338 of the Indonesian Civil Code) alongside customary law through an automated 24-hour independent expert dispute verification protocol. Results: Sensitivity analysis under a 10% seismic escalation scenario reveals a 12% total supply-chain cost increase, which the proposed model equitably redistributes via sliding-scale risk tiers, insulating micro-enterprises and smallholders from unilateral contractual forfeiture. Conclusion: Coupling real-time geohazard monitoring with legally mapped smart contracts provides a replicable, evidence-based architecture for managing catastrophic force-majeure disruptions across vulnerable frontier supply networks.
